A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
